The Good comprised the best of our prognosticators, each of them with a PVS over 5. There are few trends among the good—some are male, some are female; some are politicians, others are journalists, and there is an Administration official included, too. They discuss all the “hot topics” of the 2008 election season, including the economy, the Democratic primaries, the Presidential contest, and politics generally. These individuals rarely hedge their predictions. A number of analyses noted that predictors who made it to this list made a number of “easy” predictions, that were “obvious” and did not seem to be especially good tests of predictive capacity. A larger sample can subject these prognosticators to a more rigorous analysis to test their true predictive capacity. Below are The Good prognosticators listed in order of their PVS. Click on their names for more information.
Paul Krugman 8.2
Maureen Dowd 7.3
Ed Rendell 7.0
Chuck Schumer 6.9
Kathleen Parker 6.7
Nancy Pelosi 6.3
David Brooks 5.8
Eugene Robinson 5.5
Hank Paulson 5.5
